Tri-Nations analysis: Struggling All Blacks can still retain their crown

An in-depth look at how the times are changing for Graham Henry and his not-so-vintage New Zealand side.

by James Mortimer on 31 August 2009

The last word that comes to mind when describing the 2009 All Blacks is vintage, but they possess a fighting quality that has ensured they may still defend their Tri-Nations title. New Zealand are looking at recording an unprecedented fifth consecutive trophy that signifies supremacy in the Southern Hemisphere, and their ninth overall. However, back-to-back losses against the Springboks in South Africa have ensured that their destiny is not in their own hands. The All Blacks must rely on the Wallabies to beat the world champions in Brisbane. If this is achieved, then the clash on September 12 in Waikato could still be for the 14th Tri-Nations title. Irrespective of this, there would be a grim satisfaction residing with All Blacks coach Graham Henry, with the fact that he is now 5-1 against his Wallabies rival and fellow Kiwi Robbie Deans, well and truly putting to bed any concerns over whether or not the NZRU made the right decision in their then controversial decision to re-appoint the former headmaster of Kelston Boys. While there are still concerns moving forward for this All Blacks team, there are plenty of foundations to w

As the Springboks themselves have proven in this year’s competition, you do not need the complete game plan, as long as the established pillars of your technique are strong enough to win matches.

In this we can sum up the All Black issues this year. Unlike the South Africans, they have not been clearly dominant in one aspect that has allowed them to build into match-winning control. But the manifesto laid in Sydney, if built upon, could well change this.

The most fundamental appears to be there, the bedrock on which All Blacks teams throughout history have relied on, an unwillingness to accept defeat and a pride in the silver fern embossed on their left chest.

Even in the face of a Springboks onslaught, this All Blacks team has not folded.

The second elementary aspect is there, even if it is evident against the Wallabies far more than against the South Africans.

Their pack is strong, with a solid scrum, but in Sydney they showed one of the most desired aspects of a forward platform; the ability to evolve. Their lineout improved and their tactical approach in the loose was alternated when it was required, vastly increasing their pick and drives and running off the pillars when evident that the Wallabies were struggling.

The challenge will be to achieve this against the Springboks. Against both the World Cup holders and France this year, New Zealand have laboured at times to dominate in the tackle area.

The cattle and technique are there but, as with their basic skills in all facets, it is more a question of accuracy and patience. This could sum up their attack, with the All Blacks showing neither quality in spades.

In this, the All Blacks are very much a diamond in the rough. They are showing a willingness to run with the ball and employ an offensive stratagem, far more than their opponents, but the execution is not there.

While the desire is clearly evident, the tenets of such attack are missing, which also form the backbone of historic All Black rugby. Hard direct running, close lines of support and exquisite short off-loading are just not coming together for Henry’s men.

In many respects, heaven help the opposition when they slot the final pieces of the grand jigsaw, for against both South Africa and Australia they have made numerous breaks and running metres (almost double that of their opponents in the competition so far) but unforced errors have derailed their phases.

In this the men on the pitch must be responsible, but here a recent strength of New Zealand rugby, already seen under Henry, needs to again come to the fore. Depth of players, and the resulting competition for places it ensures.

This was evidenced through the performances by both Ma’a Nonu and Rodney So’oialo in Sydney when coming off the bench. With the All Blacks having other options in their positions (Luke McAlister and Kieran Read), the two Hurricanes came on to the park and played as if their very lives depended on it.

Contrast this to Mils Muliaina, who despite being an excellent player, hasn’t quite delivered to his very high standards in 2009. Is he a little more relaxed knowing a certain Leon Macdonald isn’t challenging for his position?

This is where New Zealand’s jewel in the crown – the Air New Zealand Cup – is crucial. This year we have seen All Blacks filtering back into the competition, but non-performing Test players should be put on notice. Equally strong domestic performers should be rewarded.

Joe Rokocoko re-earned his Test spot with a winger’s master-class performance for Auckland at Kerikeri domain, but still his position should be on notice. Otherwise it is an affront to the battalions of New Zealand wingers, such as Hosea Gear, Rudi Wulf, Rene Ranger and Fetu’u Vainikolo who perform week in and week out.

Still, if anything the frustration felt by the All Blacks' public is symptomatic of their demands for success and reflective of the usual high standards of the most successful Test team (World Cups aside) in the modern game.

And beyond the above mentioned “platforms” to work with, 2009 has unveiled many positives.

Isaac Ross and Owen Franks have been unearthed as long-term options, crucial considering Ali Williams' absence and the struggle to fill the immense shoes of Carl Hayman.

The defensive ethos of the All Blacks is strong, employing a mixed strategy of rush, swarm and umbrella tackle systems.

But for all the lack of crispness in New Zealand’s game, it is clear beyond any pessimism that they are - despite struggling to implement – looking at an innovative attacking match-day strategy that could pay dividends come 2011.

As it was when they introduced a Randwick-style attack to their arsenal in 2004, the reality is that these new approaches take time.

This was evidenced through the performances by both Ma’a Nonu and Rodney So’oialo in Sydney when coming off the bench. With the All Blacks having other options in their positions (Luke McAlister and Kieran Read), the two Hurricanes came on to the park and played as if their very lives depended on it.

Contrast this to Mils Muliaina, who despite being an excellent player, hasn’t quite delivered to his very high standards in 2009. Is he a little more relaxed knowing a certain Leon Macdonald isn’t challenging for his position?

This is where New Zealand’s jewel in the crown – the Air New Zealand Cup – is crucial. This year we have seen All Blacks filtering back into the competition, but non-performing Test players should be put on notice. Equally strong domestic performers should be rewarded.

Joe Rokocoko re-earned his Test spot with a winger’s master-class performance for Auckland at Kerikeri domain, but still his position should be on notice. Otherwise it is an affront to the battalions of New Zealand wingers, such as Hosea Gear, Rudi Wulf, Rene Ranger and Fetu’u Vainikolo who perform week in and week out.

Still, if anything the frustration felt by the All Blacks' public is symptomatic of their demands for success and reflective of the usual high standards of the most successful Test team (World Cups aside) in the modern game.

And beyond the above mentioned “platforms” to work with, 2009 has unveiled many positives.

Isaac Ross and Owen Franks have been unearthed as long-term options, crucial considering Ali Williams' absence and the struggle to fill the immense shoes of Carl Hayman.

The defensive ethos of the All Blacks is strong, employing a mixed strategy of rush, swarm and umbrella tackle systems.

But for all the lack of crispness in New Zealand’s game, it is clear beyond any pessimism that they are - despite struggling to implement – looking at an innovative attacking match-day strategy that could pay dividends come 2011.

As it was when they introduced a Randwick-style attack to their arsenal in 2004, the reality is that these new approaches take time.

Carter breaks Australian hearts at the bitter end

Black out … Brad Thorn celebrates New Zealand's epic Bledisloe Test win last night.
Photo: Dallas Kilponen

Greg Growden | August 23, 2009

Wallabies 18 All Blacks 19

THE Wallabies' Tri Nations and Bledisloe Cup campaigns ended in the most excruciating fashion when Dan Carter kicked a 78th-minute penalty goal to win the most dramatic of Tests 19-18 at ANZ Stadium last night.

The Wallabies appeared set to win 18-16 until Australian winger Lachie Turner was penalised for not releasing the ball, enabling Carter to kick the winning penalty.

The home team had their chances in the final minutes when they charged at the All Blacks line, but it all ended when replacement prop Ben Alexander dropped the ball near the line, ending the game.

This was the most demoralising of losses for the Wallabies, as they led for most of the game, showed great courage and an exceptional defensive effort, but fell just short.

It was a messy, disjointed first-half and the Wallabies survived on mere scraps, but somehow they were able to enjoy a 12-3 lead at the break.

This lead would have confounded many, especially as the All Blacks had the ball in hand far more often than the home team, the Wallabies scrum was extremely shaky prompting tight-head prop Al Baxter to be replaced after just 30 minutes. Australia often seemed uncertain what exactly they were doing.

There were high kicks, but also enough attacking play to revitalise the 80,228 crowd. However the erratic skills affected the spectacle.

Ultimately the first half all revolved around the rigid nature of the Wallabies defence which on endless occasions kept the All Blacks, who were mustered well by their five-eighth Daniel Carter, well away from their tryline. So effective was the midfield defensive line that the All Blacks eventually found themselves getting flustered, prompting errors and turnovers.

But this did not mean that the Wallabies often found relief at the other end of the field. They were constantly perched in the New Zealand half. Their first real attacking opportunity did not occur until the 28th minute, and it was soon thwarted.

Instead the Wallabies had to rely on their occasional moments when they got into the All Blacks half, and the New Zealanders' frustration at the breakdown, which saw the referee Jonathan Kaplan providing a glut of penalties in Australia's favour.

Kaplan was clearly onto All Black captain Richie McCaw, while his teammates were harshly dealt with when they talked back to the South African referee, prompting them to marched down the field.

While the All Blacks were often the guilty party, several of Kaplan's decisions in Australia's favour were questionable, and the Wallabies, who were roughly dealt with in the previous two Tests by the whistleblowers, suddenly discovered the benefits of home ground advantage.

While Matt Giteau's precise goalkicking boot gave the Wallabies the scoreboard advantage, his play at five-eighth was also constructive. Giteau and Carter were the first half standouts, both directing play well, but around them other players suffered from nerves and bed hands.

The scrums were, as expected, all over the place, with the All Blacks getting the early ascendency on Baxter's side of the scrum. After Baxter was penalised for dropping the scrum in the 30th minute, he was replaced by Ben Alexander - but the setpiece didn't exactly improve dramatically.

In the second half, the Wallabies had to rearrange their attack when Berrick Barnes had to be replaced because of a neck injury, which saw replacement Ryan Cross go to outside centre, and Adam Ashley-Cooper take over at No 12. Then Drew Mitchell found himself at fullback when James O'Connor had to be replaced because of a corked leg.

Ill-discipline also bobbed up for the Wallabies at the wrong time, with Richard Brown, for the second Test running, heading to the sinbin in the 43rd minute after a dangerous tackle on All Blacks prop Owen Franks.

But the Wallabies were able to survive this dangerous period as they conceded just three points, even though just before Brown returned to the field, the All Blacks had a Carter try disallowed because of a forward pass. Then minutes later, Jimmy Cowan had a try disallowed for obstruction.

But in the 64th minute replacement back Ma'a Nonu looped around several forwards to score the opening try.

Confident . . . The All Blacks' Daniel Carter says he's ready to take the field as he signs autographs in Sydney yesterday.
Photo: Getty Images

Carter set to slot straight in

Rupert Guinness | August 19, 2009

If Dan Carter has any hidden fear about his Test comeback for the All Blacks on Saturday, he wasn't showing any when it was confirmed yesterday.

After being preferred to Stephen Donald as the All Blacks' starting five-eighth for the Test against the Wallabies in Sydney, Carter spoke as if time had stood still since he was sidelined six months ago with a ruptured Achilles tendon.

Asked if he had any apprehension about returning after only three NPC clashes for Canterbury and one for his Southbridge club, Carter said: ''I'm just wanting to enjoy the week. Obviously, [after] not playing for so long, anxiety can tend to kick in, but we have a great bunch of guys working around me. I have a bit of experience so I know what works for me. So long as I concentrate on things I need to do everything will tend to take care of itself.''

Carter, for whom Saturday's Test will be his 59th, even dismissed any concern about having to fast-track his knowledge of the All Blacks' game plans.

''A lot of them are the same base moves we have had the last few years,'' Carter said. ''There are just a subtle few changes to a few things that I have picked up on the last few days. It is a matter of really nailing those early in the week so I have clarity in the mind for the second half of the week.''

Forget any butterflies about his head-to-head against Wallabies playmaker Matt Giteau either. He is relishing the challenge of facing one of the best.

''He is extremely settled in that No.10 jersey now after being shifted around 12 and 9,'' Carter said. ''I think he is the best man for that position, and the way he has been playing the last 12 months has been awesome. He is definitely developing and getting better every time he gets out there.''

Carter's one worry though is for the wellbeing of Luke McAlister, who was named at No.12 and could not train yesterday due to a back spasm. However, the uncertainty of who will play outside him - McAlister or Ma'a Nonu - was not troubling Carter.

''I have played a lot with Ma'a also,'' he said. ''There are slight differences to how they play, but I am lucky enough to have played alongside both of them.''

Carter and McAlister might not have fond memories of the last time they played together. It was when France beat them in the 2007 World Cup quarter-final at Cardiff. But their selection also reflects the belief that the benched Nonu's game has slipped.

''Luke gives us an extra kicking game. So there is a right and left footer there,'' coach Graham Henry said.

ALL BLACKS: 15 Mils Muliaina, 14 Joe Rokocoko, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Luke McAlister, 11 Sitiveni Sivivatu, 10 Dan Carter, 9 Jimmy Cowan, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw, 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Isaac Ross, 4 Brad Thorn, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Tony Woodcock. Reserves: 16 Aled de Malmanche, 17 John Afoa, 18 Jason Eaton, 19 Rodney So'oialo, 20 Brendon Leonard, 21 Stephen Donald, 22 Ma'a Nonu.

Volatile mix has All Blacks fizzing

Duncan Johnstone - Stuff.co.nz | August 19, 2009 - 2:02PM

Desperation, excitement and impatience make for a volatile mix and All Blacks captain Richie McCaw knows his team are going to have to keep a lid on things in the leadup to Saturday's vital clash with the Wallabies.

New Zealand have to channel their emotions into the right areas as their Tri-Nations title goes on the line and the Bledisloe Cup beckons as well.

But McCaw also senses a bit of confidence surfacing in his camp and that might be the most crucial ingredient for a side eager to atone for their twin losses to the Springboks.

It's been a long two and a half weeks since then with McCaw's men brooding on things.

"We had some time away and it's nice to be able to get back and put in place the things we want to get right for Saturday. I think the guys are pretty excited about it," McCaw said, adding that there was also "a little bit" of impatience.

"We have to make sure that we don't play the game today or tomorrow. We just have to make sure that we leave it right for Saturday.

"I think the guys understand that. Certainly the guys are pretty excited about getting out there. We've just got to make sure we hold them back a wee bit. But that's a good thing."

McCaw said that adding to his team's challenge was the fact that the Wallabies were also smarting after getting their butts spanked twice in a row in a Tri-Nations tournament that has been upended by the Boks.

"We have to remember that we are up against a team that's in exactly the same boat so that's going to make for a pretty good test if you get two desperate teams," he said.

"The thing is you have to make sure that you don't let that get on top of you. You have to go out and execute what you are after. If you do that you give yourself a chance.

"It's not the nicest situation to be in but you will see how good guys are at being able to get themselves back up and performing."

From experience – the All Blacks have twice been on the end of two losses in a row under Graham Henry's reign – McCaw said there wasn't a massive need for motivation. The results tended to do that themselves.

"Last year the guys were pretty desperate to get it right and that's the same this year. You don't have to do a whole lot. Most of the guys understand that we didn't play as well we could have and they are pretty desperate to get that right. They are pretty proud sort of guys."

While the All Blacks might enjoy a mental edge over Robbie Deans' Wallabies, having won three tight encounters against them in their last tests, the New Zealanders had shown similar vulnerability against the Boks this year.

McCaw believed this weekend's test would be a lot about composure.

"We got under pressure in Bloemfontein and Durban and they (the Springboks) capitalised on that. We had an opportunity and we let it slip.

"It would be nice to take advantage of that but the way some games go, you get put under pressure and you make mistakes. That's what disappointed us and I'm sure the Wallabies will be the same.

"So you aim to make sure that when you get your critical periods - and there's probably a couple in each test match - you have to make the most of it or you come second."

All Blacks reign over...for now, but it has been a long rule

James Mortimer - allblacks.com - 04/08/2009

Oh the woe of being an All Blacks supporter! For the first time in nine years we are burdened with the fact that New Zealand has suffered three test defeats in a calendar year, but an admittedly shaky start to the test year and the Investec Tri Nations defence does not erase what has been achieved in recent times.

And for just the third time, the All Blacks have lost their perch as the number one ranked team in the world according to the International Rugby Board’s rankings.

The cacophonies of voices are growing in volume proclaiming the greatness of this Springbok team.

Graham Henry and Richie McCaw both have acknowledged that this is the best South African side that they have come across, and it is an almost eerie feeling to think that the All Blacks may have been surpassed as the dominant power in world rugby.

We cannot write off this All Blacks team yet, when reflecting on what they have achieved of late. But in some respects it was only a matter of time before the chasing pack indeed caught up.

The IRB has, amongst others, a primary charter to grow the game around the world. With the World Cup being their principal financial engine, huge amounts of capital are spent year after year to grow the game.

As the IRB continues to fulfil their mission statement, the reality is that in the mid to long term future, the balance of rugby power will not only be shared amongst Tri Nations or Six Nations powers.

While this may not apply to the established nations of world rugby (tier one teams), with the IRB not really directly assisting say the All Blacks or Springboks as they would tier two or three teams, the reality is that come 2019 in Japan, we may see seven or eight teams genuinely capable of winning a World Cup.

Even now, teams like South Africa, England, France or Australia have the resources to be the strongest test rugby nation along with New Zealand.

In essence, we could and cannot not expect the All Blacks to reign supreme at all times.

There is no doubt that we have been spoilt in recent years, in terms of titles won and the ranking of the best team in the world.

The IRB began ranking test nations officially on the 13th October 2003.

At the time, the All Blacks had just defeated Italy 70-7 in their first match of that year’s World Cup. They would debut as the second ranked team in the world.

England would debut as the top ranked nation, courtesy of back to back away wins against the All Blacks and Wallabies earlier that year. The All Blacks would briefly taste number one heaven with a quarter final win over the Springboks, but England would retake and cement the position with their maiden World Cup win, beating the Wallabies 20-17 on the 22nd November.

They would retain this ranking throughout the 2004, but a 0-2 series loss would see the All Blacks claim the number one spot in June that year.

A position they would hold officially until the 20th October 2007, when the Springboks won the World Cup. It would break a 174 week reign for the All Blacks as “the world’s best team.”

They would regain it against the Springboks on the 5th July 2008 beating the World Cup holders 19-8 at Wellington, but then South Africa would wrest it back with a 30-28 win in Carisbrook a week later.

Just over a month later, the All Blacks would defeat South Africa 19-0 in Newlands, embarking on another long period ranked as the number one side, holding the position for 45 weeks before losing it to the Springboks just over two weeks ago in Bloemfontein.

In the six years since the rankings began, the All Blacks have been number one for 52 months. Only once have they been ranked lower than second, falling to third for one week after losing to the Wallabies in the 2003 semi final.

Now their Investec Tri Nations title is also under threat; a trophy that is considered by many as being the hardest in the world to win, according to both Springbok pillars John Smit and Victor Matfield.

Whether it is or not is a matter of opinion, but it would at the least be the second most important title in world rugby (with the Six Nations) after the William Webb Ellis Cup.

Only twice in the tournaments 13 year history has a nation won the title after losing two consecutive matches, the Springboks won it in 2004 after losing their first two matches, and the All Blacks won in last year, after losing their second and third matches.

Exactly as it currently stands for Richie McCaw’s team so far this edition of the championship.

So while it may not be an ideal position for the All Blacks to be in, they are aware of what needs to be achieved, and can lay claim to being the pre-eminent Investec Tri Nations specialists.

After all, they have won the title nine times.

No doubt it will be a formidable challenge to record an astonishing tenth trophy and fifth consecutive series victory, with the Wallabies still to play a home match, and the Springboks making a perfect start.

But the All Blacks will play the last two matches of the Investec Tri Nations with two straight home games, against the Springboks and Wallabies respectively.

It could be the closest tournament since 2004, when only bonus points separated the three sides.

IRB Rankings over history
Number one position time held

All Blacks 221 weeks
South Africa 35 weeks
England 31 weeks

Current IRB Rankings
With thanks to the IRB

1(1) SOUTH AFRICA 90.98
2(2) NEW ZEALAND 89.42
3(3) AUSTRALIA 86.06
4(4) IRELAND 83.27
5(5) FRANCE 81.48
6(6) ARGENTINA 81.29
7(7) ENGLAND 81.23
8(8) WALES 80.74
9(9) FIJI 76.52
10(10) SCOTLAND 75.23

All time table Tri Nations table
Pl W D L P/F P/L Diff Titles won

New Zealand
59 40 0 19 1512 1089 +423 9
Australia
57 23 1 33 1174 1303 -129 2
South Africa
58 23 1 34 1121 1401 -333 2

Henry's men show character

By DUNCAN JOHNSTONE - Stuff.co.nz

Last updated 21:38 18/07/2009

Photosport

OLD HANDS: Richie McCaw and Rodney So'oialo tackle Australian captain Stirling Mortlock.

OPINION: Graham Henry showed there's life left in the old dog yet as he enjoyed another immensely satisfying win over Robbie Deans, his Kiwi opposite in charge of the Wallabies.

If this match had been played three weeks ago there's no way the All Blacks would have won.But Henry has managed to squeeze something extra out of his troops during their period of inactivity.

They have used their time wisely, particularly with their forward effort.

Of course he had his returning skipper Richie McCaw to thank for another truly inspirational performance, an effort that will have come as no surprise to Deans, McCaw's former coach at the Crusaders.

McCaw was the difference at times, no more so than with his try in which he featured three times in the buildup before crossing the line.

This was by no means a faultless All Blacks win. In fact it was another effort littered with errors.

But there was also a massive amount of character and determination.

They overcame an early Wallabies lead that looked likely to see Deans come away with a win that would end a 23-year drought at Eden Park.

That didn't happen and credit needs to go to Henry for producing a stubborn All Blacks performance, one that was built around a dominant second half where they frustrated the Wallabies, smothering their forwards.

With this win the All Blacks were able to strike a significant psychological blow.

Deans' side must now win all three remaining matches in Sydney, Wellington and Tokyo to reclaim the Bledisloe Cup. That's a very tall order.

There was a nervous air in the New Zealand camp in the leadup to this match.

Henry's reappointment through to the next World Cup added a real edge to proceedings.

Not that an edge is needed when the All Blacks and Wallabies come together, especially with Kiwis in charge of both teams.

As much as the respective coaches continue to downplay their influence there's no escaping the fact that their sideshow is a compelling addition to the Bledisloe rivalry.

Now with both coaches working through to 2011 there is a fair bit more to play in this drama yet.

Ultimately it might come down to who can get their hands on the Webb Ellis cup to sort out the argument once and for all. But right now our only gauge is the Bledisloe and it's a fascinating barometer for test footy on either side of the Tasman.

Henry has extended his lead over Deans to 4-1 in quick time, something that will have his bosses in Wellington feeling both relief and justification.

Deans' honeymoon period is over and he knows his side needs to do better than they managed in a promising but also frustrating first season last year. They will have trudged off Eden Park realising that they let another opportunity slip given their bright start.

Photosport

THE KICKER: Stephen Donald kicks a
penalty for the All Blacks

New Zealand critics have ruthlessly questioned the All Blacks stumblings in big matches at times in recent years. Deans has publically wondered about the Wallabies' abilities in that area as well.

They failed again when the blow torch was applied.

The All Blacks leave early on Sunday to try to win against the Springboks in Bloemfontein and Durban, an unenviable task against a South African outfit that have been made favourites for the Tri-Nations title.

But, the World Cup aside, it's the Bledslioe Cup that matters most to Kiwis and Henry's men once again have one hand firmly on the big trophy.